AI coding tools aren't producing blockbuster apps, but they're driving a 2x boom in modestly successful niche software—game mods, browser extensions, plugins—that serve hundreds or thousands of users. The author analyzed installation counts across 20 software marketplaces and found clear growth in small projects with no corresponding explosion in major software.

• Between 2022-24 and 2025-26, successful small software projects roughly doubled (plugins, mods, extensions, game add-ons), while massively successful software showed no growth.
• Big software companies aren't shipping more features because they already have what users want and are technically constrained by existing complexity; new wildly successful projects take years to develop.
• Most hobbyist developers won't publicly admit using AI due to community backlash, making voluntary disclosure data unreliable—the 2x growth in projects against 10x growth in total projects is the real signal.